The 2022 election cycle again established the superiority of “the poll” over “the polls.”  The poll, of course, refers to actual voting.  For most of United States history, it was the one and only numerical measure of the people’s sentiment, occurring when voters went to their polling places and, by casting ballots, embraced or cast away candidates seeking office.  Only this poll is truly reliable, only it is authoritative.  Only it accurately represents the people’s will.

Increasingly in recent years, newscasters have been besotted by the public opinion surveys commonly referred to as “polls.”  Public-opinion polls are mere samples of the entire population, and, because their results can’t be compared to any real world action, their results are inevitably hypothetical.  Nevertheless, because they are statistical and conducted by social “scientists,” and, above all, because they were once fairly good at predicting election outcomes, these so-called “polls” continue to enjoy a lot of legitimacy.  Newscasters feel justified in reporting on them and using them to construct a narrative of what is happening, or about to, in a political contest.  It’s unfortunate that these opinion surveys continue to be taken as a guide to what voters will actually do, when Election Day comes.

Everyday experience teaches us of the gulf that separates our wishes and our deeds.  I might long for a certain event to occur; I might wish for a certain idea or figure to gain popularity; and I might approve of certain promises ventured in the course of a campaign.  But, when voting day comes, all those broad and momentous possibilities vanish, and I’m left with just one or two very simple practical alternatives.  Namely, will I go to vote, and will I check the box by one candidate’s name or the other?   The possibilities that any one candidate represents are strictly bounded.  Even if I truly admire a candidate on the ballot, I recognize that my vote is more a blessing than a transaction.  Elevating a candidate to office is an act of trust; fidelity to the Constitution is the only guarantee I expect in return.

Image: from this source.