Day 51: Plan Your Vote

Click on the image to go to NBC’s “Plan Your Vote” page.

NBC News has come out with a great interactive map that makes it easier for each of us to make a plan to vote.  Voting procedures vary from state to state, but, by summarizing the answers to four time-sensitive questions, this map (which is actually 4 clickable maps) supplies nearly all the information voters need to commit to a workable, personal plan.

The map’s creators have done us a service by zeroing in on four crucial questions:

    • Can I vote by mail without an excuse?
    • Can I register to vote and cast my ballot on the same day?
    • Can I vote in person before Election Day?
    • After I vote by mail, can I track my ballot?

The different policies of the states with respect to these questions is somewhat shocking.  Only some states allow mail-in voting without a reason, and a small number do not allow voting by mail merely on account of COVID-19.  A handful of states still firmly in Trump’s column (such as South Carolina, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Louisiana) have the most conservative policies.

Overall, though, I’m struck with how many states have greatly streamlined the voting process and made voting more convenient.  (This goes hand in hand with enhanced election security in many states, a topic I hope to cover at a later date.)  For example, over half the states offer a mail-in voting option with no strings attached (including several states which have gone over exclusively to mail-in voting).  Several other states have recently modified their laws to accommodate voters’ legitimate fears over having to vote in person, while the risk of illness or death from COVID19 is still top of mind.

Only a minority of states allow residents to register and cast a ballot on the same day.  As a prerequisite to voting, registration still demands that would-be voters think ahead and exercise initiative and responsibility.  Happily, the NBC map includes a state-level voting guide with all the state-specific deadlines for registering in time.

The fourth question the map addresses (“After I vote by mail, can I track my ballot?”) may be decisive for many worried about the reliability of the Postal Service under the weasely Louis DeJoy.  Most states offer tracking, so that you can be sure that your mail-in ballot arrived.  Illinois doesn’t offer such a service, unfortunately.

Please take a moment to check out NBC’s wonderful “Plan Your Vote” map.   I found it truly helpful.  I hope you do, too.

 

Day 53: The State of the Race


There’s no sure-fire way to know the mind of the electorate, but this map from 270 to Win expresses where pollsters and other experts think the race for the White House is going, based on the information on hand now.

To win, Donald Trump will have to hold the states of Texas and Iowa and swing all the toss-up states (Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Arizona) into his column.  In addition, he must recapture pivotal northern states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania that he narrowly won last time but that are trending for Biden now.

Trump is a shrewd campaigner, but, as president, he has alienated and outraged so many Americans that it is hard to imagine him winning their votes.  He’s likely to do poorly anywhere with sizable minority communities.  The black population, in particular, is highly energized against Trump and eager to destroy him at the polls.  His predatory and retrograde treatment of women dooms him with this crucial demographic, too.  From day one, Trump has treated his political opponents as enemies, spoiling any hope now of making new “friends.”

Underneath Trump is a Republican party that is rotting away.  The compromises its leaders have made for Trump’s sake have driven thousands of reputable and influential followers away.  Hundreds of high-ranking Republicans have washed their hands of Trump, declared their support for Biden, and counseled rank-and-file voters to do the same.

This discord isn’t free-floating.  It’s playing out in states.  Former governors and legislators are actually working to defeat their own party’s leader.  Trump’s funding is drying up.  Many Republicans up for election are shaky.  As Trump continues to war against his own party’s establishment, he risks a victory that may doom him, too.

RELATED:
Ruth Ben-Ghiat, “Co-opt and Corrupt: How Trump Bent and Broke the GOP” (NYR)
Jacob Greber, “James and Kathryn Murdoch Become Some of Biggest Anti-Trump Donors(AFR).
“Trump’s August Fundraising Lags Biden’s By 150 Million” (NPR)


Image:
from this source.

Day 54: Turning Purple Blue

The tradition of going out to canvass in an area other than one’s own runs deep in American politics. At least as far back as the 1850s, political friends coordinated across state lines to help deliver the vote for their party, going to stump in other states and in some cases giving money to facilitate distant campaigns. These customs have not merely persisted but burgeoned with American mobility, high-tech modes of connectivity, and detailed tracking of local voting patterns.

If I were to canvass for Biden in my home county, it would be a waste of time. I’d be preaching to the choir: Cook County, Illinois, is as blue as they come. Conditions are more promising in Berrien County, Michigan, where I’m living temporarily. Berrien leans Republican but may be in flux. Population-wise, it’s a mix of former Illinoisans (mainly from Chicagoland) who are affluent and older, and native Michiganders who, whether farmers, small-business owners, tradesmen, or unskilled workers, have probably had their fill of economic upheavals and uncertainty. The wealthy areas along Lake Michigan’s shoreline, which forms Berrien County’s western boundary, shade off into eastern expanses of rural and semi-rural poverty, interspersed with thriving farms. Except for the New Buffalo area, which has grown dramatically, the population of the county has shrunk.

Counties such as this will matter as Biden strives to improve upon Hillary Clinton’s dismal Michigan showing in 2016. While Obama won Michigan handily in 2012, garnering 54.2% of the popular vote, Clinton lost the state to Trump by a margin of just 0.2%. Votes cast for third-party candidates exceeded the margin of her loss to Trump. Will Biden have more success appealing to the types of people who inhabit Berrien county? It would be exciting to see purplish Berrien turn blue.

Image: Detail from a Princeton Election Consortium map.
The fuchsia blob on the east side of Lake Michigan is the congressional district encompassing Berrien County, MI.