Restoring political stability in the US depends on defeating individual Republicans at the ballot box in states. As long as Trump remains at large and the Republican Party remains his instrument, the rest of us who care about the survival of self-government must join together to defeat candidates still loyal to the so-called Republican brand. Continue reading
Where Trump beat Biden in 2020, his margin of victory was often wide. Listed below are the states where Trump prevailed, in order of his relative popularity. The results show where Democrats are least competitive, where Trump prevails because of an absence of viable competition.
After that is a second list, of the ten states most closely decided in 2020. In four states (Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania), Biden prevailed by a margin of less than one percent. Had these states gone the other way, Trump would still be president.
The political crisis of the United States will resolve when a rival party becomes ideologically competitive in the many states where Trump dominated comfortably last time around. Many of these states are small. How to woo votes away from Trump in these areas is an experiment worth embarking on prior to the election of 2024.
KEY: State (Electoral votes) NUMBER OF VOTES CAST FOR TRUMP / Margin of victory
- Wyoming (3) 193,559 / 43.3 %
- West Virginia (5) 545,382 / 38.9 %
- North Dakota (3) 235,595 / 33.3 %
- Oklahoma (7) 1,020,280 / 33.1 %
- Idaho (4) 554,119 / 30.8 %
- Arkansas (6) 760,647 / 27.6 %
- South Dakota (3) 261,043 / 26.2 %
- Kentucky (8) 1,326,646 / 25.9 %
- Alabama (9) 1,441,170 / 25.4 %
- Tennessee (11) 1,852,475 / 23.2 %
- Utah (6) 865,140 / 20.5 %
- Nebraska (4/5) 556,846 / 19.1 %
- Louisiana (8) 1,255,776 / 18.6 %
- Mississippi (6) 756,764 / 16.5 %
- Montana (3) 343,602 / 16.4 %
- Indiana (11) 1,729,516 / 16 %
- Missouri (10) 1,718,736 / 15.4 %
- Kansas (6) 771,406 / 14.6 %
- South Carolina (9) 1,385,103 / 11.7 %
- Alaska (3) 189,951 / 10 %
- Iowa (6) 897,672 / 8.2 %
- Ohio (18) 3,154,834 / 8.1 %
- Texas (38) 5,890,347 / 5.6 %
- Florida (29) 5,668,731 / 3.3 %
- North Carolina (15) 2,758,775 / 1.3 %
- Maine (1/4) 360,737* / -9.1 %
*Votes garnered in Maine gave Trump 1 electoral vote out of a possible four.
The most closely contested states in 2020: Biden’s narrowest margins
- Georgia (16) B by 0.2 %
- Arizona (11) B by 0.6 %
- Wisconsin (10) B by 0.6 %
- Pennsylvania (20) B by 0.7 %
- North Carolina (15) T by 1.3 %
- Michigan (16) B by 2.6 %
- Nevada (6) B by 2.7 %
- Florida (29) T by 3.3 %
- Texas (38) T by 5.6 %
- Minnesota (10) B by 7.1 %
- New Hampshire (4) B by 7.1 %
Vote totals from https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020
Margins from https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker
Downloadable blank outline map from JFK Library
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NBC News has come out with a great interactive map that makes it easier for each of us to make a plan to vote. Voting procedures vary from state to state, but, by summarizing the answers to four time-sensitive questions, this map (which is actually 4 clickable maps) supplies nearly all the information voters need to commit to a workable, personal plan.
The map’s creators have done us a service by zeroing in on four crucial questions:
- Can I vote by mail without an excuse?
- Can I register to vote and cast my ballot on the same day?
- Can I vote in person before Election Day?
- After I vote by mail, can I track my ballot?
The different policies of the states with respect to these questions is somewhat shocking. Only some states allow mail-in voting without a reason, and a small number do not allow voting by mail merely on account of COVID-19. A handful of states still firmly in Trump’s column (such as South Carolina, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Louisiana) have the most conservative policies.
Overall, though, I’m struck with how many states have greatly streamlined the voting process and made voting more convenient. (This goes hand in hand with enhanced election security in many states, a topic I hope to cover at a later date.) For example, over half the states offer a mail-in voting option with no strings attached (including several states which have gone over exclusively to mail-in voting). Several other states have recently modified their laws to accommodate voters’ legitimate fears over having to vote in person, while the risk of illness or death from COVID19 is still top of mind.
Only a minority of states allow residents to register and cast a ballot on the same day. As a prerequisite to voting, registration still demands that would-be voters think ahead and exercise initiative and responsibility. Happily, the NBC map includes a state-level voting guide with all the state-specific deadlines for registering in time.
The fourth question the map addresses (“After I vote by mail, can I track my ballot?”) may be decisive for many worried about the reliability of the Postal Service under the weasely Louis DeJoy. Most states offer tracking, so that you can be sure that your mail-in ballot arrived. Illinois doesn’t offer such a service, unfortunately.
Please take a moment to check out NBC’s wonderful “Plan Your Vote” map. I found it truly helpful. I hope you do, too.
This map shows the predominant ancestry of every county in the country, based on data gathered in the 2000 US census. As a measure of the prevalence and persistence of ancestral identification, the map is fascinating and surprising.
Many of us are invisible on this map: we are minorities within majorities. In that sense, the map hides diversity rather than exposing it, but, even so, the level of diversity and homogeneity within the states is striking. Continue reading
Back in the spring of 2012, I wrote a post, Is the Republican Party Dying?, in which I surmised that the GOP, despite its already apparent fissures, was unlikely to collapse any time soon, because of the broad popularity it continued to enjoy at the state level in many parts of the country. Now, in the wake of last week’s House vote on a bill to reopen the government, we have fresh evidence with which to assess the current condition of the party.
The GOP’s troubles appear to be growing, for, with the House vote that ended the government shutdown, the relative strength of the GOP’s intransigent right wing is clear to see.
Here is the vote count and its geographic distribution as depicted in a New York Times interactive graphic on October 17. The yes vote (totaling 235 votes) was composed of 198 Democrats and 87 Republicans. The no vote (totaling 144 votes) was composed entirely of Republicans unwilling to compromise, or to adhere to the advice of the moderate leadership of the party, as embodied in the House Speaker, John Boehner.
The size of the “no vote” is significant and startling, establishing that the more radical “Tea Party” element in the GOP, far from being a minority tendency as often depicted, comprises a MAJORITY of all House Republicans. Far from being a “tail” that is “wagging the dog,” the Tea Partiers have morphed into the dog itself. The only wonder is that they have not yet used their power to depose John Boehner–a miracle that has probably astonished the Speaker himself.
Regarding the “upcountry” character of these more radical Republican characters, the NYT map illuminates how difficult it will be to dislodge them, and why this faction so consistently overestimates its prospects for influencing the mass of the American population. In many states where the suicide caucus lives, it enjoys a virtual monopoly. In 12 states—including Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Missouri, Texas, and Arizona—all the Republican representatives are of the intransigent kind.
These blinkered souls believe, despite the mounting evidence of public opinion polls, that their views command the assent of the American mainstream, and they are confidently planning to extend their geographical sweep into more moderate Republican territory. In the meantime, moderates, alarmed at the immoderation of their right wing, have begun planning to challenge them in the primaries. The battle for control of the GOP will be hard-fought.
But for now, the rest of us have seen how dangerous and desperate political actors can be when trying to hold together a party that’s imploding. Should we condemn John Boehner for accommodating the radicals, or be relieved that no more radical obstructionist is replacing him? The GOP truly is a grand old party, and should its literally elephantine organization collapse, the attendant damage would be catastrophic, not just for the party, but, as we have seen, for the nation too.
Looking back on this period, historians will puzzle over the decision of the GOP to welcome this radical fringe into their party. Even now, the traditional Republicans could recover their dominance by unceremoniously cutting the Tea Party loose. Without the GOP’s support and legitimation, the radicals’ spell would be broken, and their national influence would evaporate overnight.
Moderate Republicans who believe that such destructive zealots are necessary to their party have forgotten about the massive bloc of disaffected voters in the center of the political spectrum, waiting for forward-looking parties and personalities to appeal to them.