Where Trump beat Biden in 2020, his margin of victory was often wide. Listed below are the states where Trump prevailed, in order of his relative popularity. The results show where Democrats are least competitive, where Trump prevails because of an absence of viable competition.
After that is a second list, of the ten states most closely decided in 2020. In four states (Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania), Biden prevailed by a margin of less than one percent. Had these states gone the other way, Trump would still be president.
The political crisis of the United States will resolve when a rival party becomes ideologically competitive in the many states where Trump dominated comfortably last time around. Many of these states are small. How to woo votes away from Trump in these areas is an experiment worth embarking on prior to the election of 2024.
KEY: State (Electoral votes) NUMBER OF VOTES CAST FOR TRUMP / Margin of victory
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- Wyoming (3) 193,559 / 43.3 %
- West Virginia (5) 545,382 / 38.9 %
- North Dakota (3) 235,595 / 33.3 %
- Oklahoma (7) 1,020,280 / 33.1 %
- Idaho (4) 554,119 / 30.8 %
- Arkansas (6) 760,647 / 27.6 %
- South Dakota (3) 261,043 / 26.2 %
- Kentucky (8) 1,326,646 / 25.9 %
- Alabama (9) 1,441,170 / 25.4 %
- Tennessee (11) 1,852,475 / 23.2 %
- Utah (6) 865,140 / 20.5 %
- Nebraska (4/5) 556,846 / 19.1 %
- Louisiana (8) 1,255,776 / 18.6 %
- Mississippi (6) 756,764 / 16.5 %
- Montana (3) 343,602 / 16.4 %
- Indiana (11) 1,729,516 / 16 %
- Missouri (10) 1,718,736 / 15.4 %
- Kansas (6) 771,406 / 14.6 %
- South Carolina (9) 1,385,103 / 11.7 %
- Alaska (3) 189,951 / 10 %
- Iowa (6) 897,672 / 8.2 %
- Ohio (18) 3,154,834 / 8.1 %
- Texas (38) 5,890,347 / 5.6 %
- Florida (29) 5,668,731 / 3.3 %
- North Carolina (15) 2,758,775 / 1.3 %
- Maine (1/4) 360,737* / -9.1 %
*Votes garnered in Maine gave Trump 1 electoral vote out of a possible four.
The most closely contested states in 2020: Biden’s narrowest margins
-
- Georgia (16) B by 0.2 %
- Arizona (11) B by 0.6 %
- Wisconsin (10) B by 0.6 %
- Pennsylvania (20) B by 0.7 %
- North Carolina (15) T by 1.3 %
- Michigan (16) B by 2.6 %
- Nevada (6) B by 2.7 %
- Florida (29) T by 3.3 %
- Texas (38) T by 5.6 %
- Minnesota (10) B by 7.1 %
- New Hampshire (4) B by 7.1 %
SOURCES
Vote totals from https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020
Margins from https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker
Downloadable blank outline map from JFK Library
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And that is in the midst of a horrible pandemic and economic crisis. We of course cannot forget about the voter suppression laws and actions leading to 2020 and since that may lead to an uphill battle for Democrats if they cannot pass HR1.
Equally important is local presence and persuasion. Voters will abandon the pernicious Republican party of Trump only when presented with an alternative platform that does more for them. The Democrats have failed at that, even in many states with large poor and minority populations.
Thanks for reading and commenting, George. Much appreciated.
Interesting. I agree that the Democrats need to break the backbone of the GOP; the Republicans always slam the Dems in those states. They represent too many electoral votes to float effortlessly into the red column. . . . What to do, what to do?
If I were Biden, I would start sending cabinet members to those Plains states and others for talks and mini policy rallies. Hit the small towns. Talk abut farming, crops, roads, infrastructure, schooling, clean water, etc. It’s one thing to hear these “policies” coming from D.C, so far away and omniscient, but another to hear it from the horse’s mouth.
A real person and voice delivering good news directly to these people. . . . Why not–what is the downside?–none.
Well, there’s the Hatch Act, which makes it illegal to use political office for partisan purposes. Otherwise, I agree that everyone opposed to Trump and his ilk should be out there, in localities, talking with ordinary people and re-establishing confidence in what was once called “general government.” I find myself wondering about what kind of presence the Democratic party has in states where Trump is doing so well. Do you remember Howard Dean’s “50-state strategy”? Yet, I was shocked that the Democratic party organization was weak even in some corners of the pivotal state of Michigan. The party system is underserving large portions of the electorate–this is a problem that can be approached ideologically: in terms of what people in the Plains and South need that neither party is adequately addressing.
Our first president, George Washington, visited every state in the new nation, which at the time was a bold, almost outlandishly ambitious undertaking. Going to those thirteen states acquainted him better with local residents and conditions, all of which he hoped to represent as “the people’s sovereign.”
Speaking of the southern states, those susceptible to hurricanes: In all the covid relief bills passed, no money was earmarked to upgrade hurricane protections in those states–something the population would like and welcome. They represent a lot of electoral votes: Texas,Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina. Interesting, isn’t it? I believe last year was the worst for hurricanes ever, and the years before that were awful too. The Democratic National Committee has got to get creative in finding ways to attract voters away from the GOP in those states and The Plains states; it is not an impossible task.