2020: The Possible, Probable, and Inevitable

Near view of the statue normally atop the US Capitol dome.

Some new years open on indeterminacy, the shape of the future vague enough to warrant a complacent optimism.  “Happy New Year!”  Not 2020.  The United States, though still the planet’s most powerful nation, is in the thick of a political metamorphosis, and what character of government will emerge from it is anyone’s guess.  Bickering parties, an out-of-control president, a resentful populace, oceans of Russian disinformation, even a tech-driven epistemological crisis: such are the forces pushing the American republic ever closer to a great collapse—or paralysis.  Even if it isn’t curtains for the US, this is surely one of its most inglorious periods, its government full of cowardly and mediocre people.

Between the president’s pending impeachment and the certainty of a presidential election come November, what is possible, probable, and inevitable in this new year?  Here are a few prognostications.

The possible: Democratic nominees

Although the field of Democratic presidential candidates remains broad and, as yet, no votes have been cast, only two of the candidates have a shot at becoming president: Bernie Sanders and Michael Bloomberg.

If Sanders retains his current support, his chief progressive rival, Elizabeth Warren, will have to drop out.  Her voters will gravitate to him, giving him a strong lead over all the Democratic field.  In a general election, Sanders would repel moderates and capitalists, giving a victory to the incumbent, President Trump.

None of the more moderate candidates—whether Joe Biden, Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg, Cory Booker, or Tom Steyer—can attract a majority of Democratic support: if they could, that majority would have gravitated to them from other candidates already, and the attraction would have registered in public opinion polls.

As moderate candidates drop out, the moderate “frontrunner” Joe Biden will not necessarily get stronger.  Pete Buttigieg will be limited in that he comes across as a product of entitlement.  Michael Bloomberg, a wealthy and capable latecomer, could, however, draw enough support from among moderate and independent voters to come to dominate this weak and wide field.  In a general election, Bloomberg would stand a fine chance of beating Trump.

The possible: a fair Senate impeachment trial

It is still possible, though not probable, that the US Senate will decide to conduct a thorough impeachment trial of the president, one that impartially explores the charges against Trump that the House has formally brought.  That Senate Republicans have stood firm as a group and only faintly objected to the fawning proclamations of Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell and vocal Trump loyalist Lindsey Graham makes me doubt that the Republicans will ever do anything but fall on their swords in defense of their man.

More evidence could come out against Trump, however, of a nature impossible to defend, tolerate, or ignore.  As long as Nancy Pelosi holds on to the impeachment charges, and as long as there is a chance of a major witness coming over from the administration to testify, there is a chance that a fair and full trial, with live-witness testimony, will be held.

The Senate is intent on stonewalling and preventing a fair trial, because, if a fair trial were held, the Senators would be compelled to find the president guilty and remove him from office.  In that case, we could see a President Pence in 2020.

[Hours after this post appeared, John Bolton, a key player in the White House during the Ukrainian controversy, announced that he would be willing to comply with a Senate subpoena and testify.]

The probable: a show trial in the Senate

More probable is that the Senate trial will be a superficial affair, with a vote to acquit the president.  That would leave him free to run for reelection.  Regardless of the lip service constantly paid to Trump’s base, his erratic conduct and the controversy it engenders is weakening the Republicans.  The unusually large number of Republican lawmakers leaving Congress instead of running for reelection is one sign of the party’s critical condition.  It is rare for humans give up power unless they must.

The probable: a very close presidential vote but a loss for Trump

Americans who don’t approve of Trump outnumber those who do by about 10 percentage points.  Trump’s victory in 2016 rested on electoral votes, while the loser Hillary Clinton dominated the popular vote, winning nearly 2.9 million votes more than he.  According to the Washington Post, “Of the more than 120 million votes cast . . . , 107,000 votes in three states effectively decided the election.”  The three states were Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.  Trump also won Iowa and Ohio, which Obama had carried previously.  In all, margins of less than two percent decided the outcome in six states.

I don’t want to underestimate the Democrats’ ability to choose an unelectable candidate or run an undisciplined presidential campaign, but with the right candidate and a smart strategy, the Democrats could defeat Trump fair and square.  In truth, this would be better for the country than removing him from office, which would embitter many of his supporters.

The inevitable: dangerously fierce partisan rancor

Here’s the problem with extreme partisanship.  The parties end up competing for power, rather than tailoring their identities around ideas or the needs of the people.  The government grows unresponsive and ineffectual, increasing discontent and cynicism among citizens.  The bland, stale character of the parties largely accounts for the rise of Trump, a dangerous figure.

Unfortunately, unless a third party emerges to disrupt the existing balance of power between the two parties, or unless the parties reform themselves from within, American politics is likely to go on being nasty, vengeful, and mediocre.

The overall decline in the quality of American governance is not just wasteful and embarrassing; it is a real threat to our well-being, domestic tranquillity, and security.  Yet it appears inevitable that party warfare will continue and perhaps even intensify in 2020.  It won’t be unprecedented, but it will be both scary and a betrayal of the people’s trust.

Image: A 1993 Jack Boucher photograph of a close view of the Statue of Freedom
normally atop the United States Capitol,
 
from this source.


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